I don’t know if you’ve been following the US Presidential election but one of our Labour Councillors has been playing an active role in Florida as part of Hillary Clinton’s campaign… though his “help” may not have been as entirely helpful as he intended. Unless, of course, he’s actually working for Donald Trump.
Cllr Michael Borio (pictured right), one of Labour’s Queensbury Ward councillors (alongside beleaguered Leader Sachin Shah and Portfolio Holder Kiran Ramchandani) flew out to Florida on the 18th October.
According to Nate Silver’s www.fivethirtyeight.com’s election polling website, Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign immediately felt the impact of “The Borio Effect”: with Trump’s chances of winning increasing by 3.3 percentage points. Exactly two weeks after Cllr. Borio started actively campaigning for Hillary on the 19th October, Nate Silver’s 538 was reporting Trump as likely to win Florida’s 29 crucial Electoral College votes (2nd November).
Before Borio left the UK, Clinton had a 77.1% chance of winning. By the eve of the elections, she had dropped 25 percentage points, about a third.The chart below shows “The Borio Effect” on Clinton’s ratings, which started to plummet as soon as Borio had announced he was on the way…
Has “The Borio Effect” doomed Hillary Clinton’s bid for the White House? They’ve certainly made her path to the Oval Office harder… and so I’m sure that Cllr. Borio will be hoping that a very late poll, released (7th November) on the eve of Election Day (Tuesday 8th November), is right in predicting that Hillary will win Florida… and that she’s weathered “The Borio Effect”.
Thanks to Anon for the contribution.