Dec 28 2012

Crime on the increase in Harrow. Or is it?

police_bmw_150x150Local free rag, the Harrow Times, has just published an article (there’s an archived copy here, as the Times have a track record of changing their articles without saying anything) declaring that “crime is on the increase in Harrow.” Fans of Erwin Schrödinger and his famous cat experiment will be delighted to know that this has the unusual paradoxical property of being both true, and false, at the same time.

There were 1020 crimes reported in September across Harrow, which rose to 1153 in October, then dropped to 1152 in November. Crime increased by 13% between September and October. Crime then dropped by .08% between October and November, so essentially, it stayed the same during those two months. But yes, overall, you could say that it increased.

But is that a valid comparison? If we look at the same three months from 2011, we see the monthly crimes for each of those three months was higher a year ago. Crime has, in fact, fallen comparing those three months in 2012 to 2011.

But that’s only a snapshot. If we look at the whole year figures, it’s ever better news. For 2009/10 there were 15394 crimes. In 2010/11 there were 14968, and in 2011/12 there were 14198. Crime has fallen every single year: by nearly 3% in 2010/11 compared to 2009/10, and by more than 5% in 2011/12 compared to 2010/11.

In fact, to look at it another way, crime right across London as a whole has decreased: by 0.8% in 2010/11 compared to 2009/10 and by 1% in 2011/12 compared to 2010/11.

But don’t take our word for it – and definitely don’t take the word of the Harrow Times – you can get exact figures for your particular sub-ward from the Metropolitan Police themselves, with all kinds of excruciating detail at maps.met.police.uk for the whole story.

The Harrow Times may not have told you the whole story, but their headline was far more attention grabbing than ours.





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